Avoid the most
common sports betting mistake
Despite numerous attempts to
curb the recreational activity, millions of people all over the
United States continue to bet on sports on a regular basis
(bettors in most of the rest of the world do not have the same
restrictions).
Some
professional gamblers, in fact, can actually make a living by
understanding betting systems as well as understanding the
sports they bet on. For every person who can make good money off
of sports betting, though, there are hundreds (if not
thousands!) who come out in the red season after season. Let’s
take a look at the biggest mistake that new gamblers in
particular make when they start to place bets on sports.
Confusing a favorite with a winner. The
number one mistake that newbie gamblers in particular make when
placing their bets is thinking that the “favorite” means that
that team or individual is going to win. They think that the
odds makers have some kind of analysis specialty or crystal ball
tucked away that gives them an edge on who will be victorious.
This is absolutely not what a favorite
is. A favorite is not a team who will probably win, but instead
a team on whom the majority of bettors are placing their bets.
While in some cases this is an indication that the favored team
are in fact the more skilled team, sometimes it does not work
this way.
Let’s use an example to help clarify
this. Say the New York Giants are playing the Kansas City
Chiefs, and the Giants are listed as 7.5 favorites on the
spread. Is this because the Giants have a better chance of
winning? No! It’s based on the fact more people are betting on
the Giants than on the chiefs. This can happen for a number of
reasons:
• The favored team is located in a bigger market.
• Through merchandising or just due to market filtration, the
favorite team has the more recognizable name than the underdogs.
Deciding the favorite is no indication
at all of the skill level of a given team or even their ability
to beat another team. Fans who bet often go with the heart
instead of the head, so a team that does not have a realistic
shot does have a chance at being the favorite in any given
match.
An even greater problem presents itself
when bookmakers adjust the spread to even the action. Bookmakers
want to avoid getting middled and losing their cut, so they want
even betting on both sides. If one side is being bet on too
heavily, they will adjust the spread so that the winning team
must win by a wider margin in order to pay off bettors. If you
don’t understand the favorite concept, this might make it look
like the favorite is way better than the underdog. If you’re
betting the spread, it’s always better to go with an underdog
who has good value; in other words, a dog up against a heavy
favorite. If you’re just betting on a victory, don’t let the
spread indicate where you should put your money!
Marshall
Published on 06/29/2007
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