betting strategy: Consider the Bullpen
Most people will probably
agree that in baseball, the person who is on the mound makes the
most difference in any given game.
pitcher is the guy who will see the most action and who really
controls the pace and events of any game. When it comes to
betting, it’s a good idea to pay close attention to whoever
takes the mound in a game. This requires some research on the
part of the bettor, but it’s definitely work that pays off.
Remember, bookmakers make the lines according to the way the
bets are going; the fact that the starting pitcher will seem to
make a difference to the lines and the values of the different
bets is a reflection of public opinion more than bookie
Any amateur bettor or casually betting
fan will know to look at the starter first when it comes to
handicapping bets for the week. Where experience and some solid
knowledge comes into play is in the rest of the pitching lineup.
This is more clear when one considers
the number of starting pitchers who actually complete an entire
nine innings of baseball. It doesn’t happen that often at all!
In fact, most starters will probably pitch between four and six
innings – seven on the outside average – and then they will be
retired for the day. Managers want to make sure their aces are
in good form and able to come out on a set rotation, so they
don’t want to see them pitching 27 extra pitches at the very
least every single game.
What this means to the person who bets
on baseball is that there are several pitchers to consider when
you are handicapping the game. Starters will be your first
consideration, of course, but any baseball game will see on
average anywhere from 4-6 guys taking the mound. You have to
have a handle on the entire pitching staff in order to make you
bets as accurate as possible.
After your starters, you want to take a
look at the middle pitchers, the least acknowledged baseball
players on a team. It’s strange, because these are the guys who
can make the biggest difference, especially in tight games. As
far as what a bettor is looking for in a middle game pitcher,
it’s all about speed and accuracy. These guys are precision
strikers and a manager will often match a relief pitcher to a
specific batter, so that he only throws a few pitches. A
weakness here can mean the game gets blown wide open.
After two or three middle pitchers get
done with their jobs, it’s time for the closers. Closers get
almost as much buzz as starters, but they really have the least
amount of impact on a game. If a team is behind by the time a
closer takes the mound, it’s really up to the hitters to get the
team back in the game. A closer with a losing record can make a
difference though as he might not be a pressure performer, so
steer clear of teams that put in a closer who consistently blows
A final thing to remember about closers
is that like starters, you won’t see them come out every game.
They’re needed in the tight situations, so managers prefer to
Smart baseball betting means that you
take the entire pitching lineup into consideration when you are
handicapping games. You’ll want to look at records as far as
wins and losses as well as pitches thrown, strikes, and averages
against right and left handed hitters and then bet accordingly.
Published on 07/30/2007
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