Sportsbooks take a gamble on the Super Bowl, lose big

The constant -12 point spread on the Patriots for the 2008 Super Bowl cost the sportsbooks worldwide millions.

Sportsbooks take a gamble on the Super Bowl, lose big When you see a double digit point spread on the Super Bowl - go against it, that's the rule of thumb almost every bettor follows. But the sportsbooks worldwide bought into the Patriots hype and the point spread was favoring New England -12 points all the way until the start of the Super Bowl game. The outcome - an upset for the Pats and for the sportsbooks, great day for almost all bettors. And one question arises - what were the bookies thinking? A -12 point spread on the Super Bowl game between the Giants and the Patriots? It was pure insanity and there is only one explanation - the bookies took the gamble in order to keep the action. Let's look at the facts:

1. There was simply no excuse to open the spread at -12 points (some Las Vegas bookmakers opened at -14 chalk the Pats). Since October, the Patriots have covered such spread in only three games, against the Bills, Steelers and the Dolphins. Even the struggling Eagles gave the Pats a hard time for a 31-28 final score. And let's not forget that the Patriots and Giants already met, in the last regular season matchup, and New England won by only 3 points 38-35. Where did the sportsbook get a 12-point spread remains a mystery.

2. The Giants whopped the Buccaneers, the Cowboys AND the Packers, who in their right mind would think the Giants would simply roll over to the Pats? Not the bettors, that's who, and 90% of them had thicker pockets at the end of the Super Bowl 42.

3. Neither the spread, nor the lines moved much throughout the week, despite the fact that almost 90% of the bettors took the Giants overall. Here is a simple explanation of how the odds and point spread move - the odds makers post the betting odds according to the most likely outcome of the event, however, if one side gets more action, the sportsbooks adjust the odds so the balance in the bets is restored. With most bookies reporting 90% action on the Giants, it's odd there was no movement in the lines and spread. The online sportsbook Bodog Sports had the spread down to -11 in the middle of the week prior to the Super Bowl game, but it was quickly back up to -12. The odds on the Giants to win the Super Bowl game sat at around +340/+320 throughout the week.

The only possible explanation for all this - the sportsbook chose to keep the betting numbers frozen in order to take the action. Along, they took the gamble, as well. And what an action it was - Super Bowl 42 - everyone is a winner. Congratulations to all of our readers, who undoubtedly took the Giants. We will keep our eyes open for the next bookie screw-up and alert you all to take the action and repeat the Super Bowl 42 outcome. Maybe the Pro Bowl?

Published on 02/05/2008